News / The post-Golden Week container shipping capacity conundrum: lines play it cautious

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None of the major ocean carriers serving the Asia-Europe and transpacific trades have given any indication of their plans for the traditional withdrawal of services over the winter slack season.

They would not normally be in a position to gauge expected demand until the impact of the Chinese Golden Week holiday has been played out by late October. But the supply and demand winter programme equation this year could be particularly difficult to call, given the better-than-expected load factors and peak season enjoyed by carriers plying these two tradelanes.

Moreover, the established east-west trade alliances of the G6 and CKYHE will no doubt be reluctant to blink first, with the proposed Maersk Line and MSC 2M vessel-sharing agreement and the newly-configured Ocean Three co-operation between CMA CGM, UASC and CSCL looking for any weakness in a rival alliance.

Despite the reported 90% load factors enjoyed by Asia-North Europe carriers, the September general rate increases have failed to stick, with last week’s Shanghai Containerized Freight Index shedding another $74 per teu, where it was before the current round of GRIs.

Furthermore, the recently announced and bullish GRIs for October will be even more difficult to sustain if, post-Golden Week, cargo flows are subdued and the ultra-large containership operators become desperate to fill holds.

It follows that there will be much burning of the midnight oil in the boardrooms of ocean carriers when the item of adjusting capacity for the slack winter months appears on the agenda.